Capitol Hill

Comprehensive immigration reform legislation remains a top priority for NRCA. However, since the defeat of an immigration reform bill in the Senate in 2007, it has been highly uncertain when such legislation will pass.

But could it happen this year? Several signs indicate it is possible though numerous obstacles remain.

Nearing reform

In some respects, the conditions needed to enact immigration reform legislation seem to be falling into place.

Foremost, President Obama supports comprehensive immigration reform and emphasized during the 2008 presidential campaign that he would work to enact legislation addressing the issue if elected. And in April, a White House official publicly stated Obama would push to enact immigration reform this year.

Second, most congressional Democrats—who greatly expanded their majorities in the 2008 elections—also support immigration reform. So Obama has allies from his party who serve in key positions and can help move a bill through Congress.

Additionally, public opinion regarding the issue may be shifting. Recent polls indicate a majority of U.S. citizens believe the U.S. immigration system is dysfunctional and Congress should pass legislation to fix it.

In March, Obama met with key lawmakers to discuss immigration reform. He also held a White House forum in June with members of Congress and stakeholders to discuss immigration issues.

Additionally, Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D-Ill.), a key House leader regarding immigration issues, helped organize a series of recent events throughout the U.S. to mobilize support for immigration reform.

And Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.), chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee's Immigration Subcommittee, held several hearings in the spring to examine the issue and stated he intends to move forward on an immigration reform bill this year.

Dimming prospects

Although these developments seem to indicate momentum is growing to address immigration reform, there are some obstacles that cast serious doubt on the prospect of such legislation's enactment in 2009 or even 2010.

First, passing immigration reform legislation is extremely difficult even during good economic times, and many observers believe it will be virtually impossible to pass such legislation until the economy improves and unemployment decreases.

Second, Obama's commitment to the issue is unclear. White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel predicted in late 2008 that comprehensive immigration reform would not be enacted until Obama's fifth year in office. More recently, Emanuel reportedly told Congress members that Obama will push for immigration reform if 25 House Republicans support his plan, which Obama surely knows is not possible at this time.

Another issue is the breakup of the coalition that supported such legislation in 2007. With organized labor and business groups such as NRCA engaged in a protracted and acrimonious battle regarding union-organizing "card check" legislation, it is questionable whether they can work together to pass immigration reform legislation anytime soon.

Privately, Congress members indicate that for the rest of 2009, comprehensive immigration reform will take a back seat to Obama's top priorities—health care, energy and economic issues. And it will be even more difficult to pass such a politically sensitive bill in 2010 with the midterm elections approaching.

Leadership needed

Perhaps the most telling public statement regarding immigration reform was spoken by White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs in April: "The president is focused on starting this process this year as he said in his campaign."

The bottom line is: Without strong leadership from Obama, passing comprehensive immigration reform may be delayed until 2011 or later.

Duane L. Musser is NRCA's vice president of government relations.