Capitol Hill

A 25-year quest by Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska) to open a small portion of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) for energy exploration froze in its tracks Dec. 21, 2005, when the Senate failed to overcome a Democratic filibuster of the measure. It was a familiar outcome—the Senate has greeted ANWR drilling efforts with a frosty reception during the past few years. But after Republicans gained seats during the November 2004 elections, drilling proponents believed 2005 would be the year to break through the ice.

A modest proposal

In 1980, Congress passed the Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act (ANILCA), creating the 19 million-acre (7.6 million-hectare) area known as ANWR. Situated in northeast Alaska, the refuge roughly is the size of South Carolina. ANILCA designated most of the land as wilderness, but one portion was excluded—the 1.5 million-acre (600,000-hectare) 1002 Area. Named for Section 1002 of ANILCA, this area was set aside for potential oil and gas development.

In 2005, Republican proponents succeeded in attaching a provision to the 2006 budget reconciliation bill to open 2,000 acres (800 hectares)—0.01 percent of ANWR's total acreage—of the 1002 Area to oil and gas exploration and production. But after GOP moderates in the House insisted the language be stripped from the bill, Stevens was left searching for an alternative and convinced GOP leaders in both chambers to move the language to the 2006 defense appropriations bill, figuring attaching the ANWR provision would force Democrats to vote for the measure or against funding for troops overseas. The gambit worked in the House, but the bill failed to pass the Senate 56-44, four votes shy of the 60 needed to end debate and move to final passage.

An imbalanced market

The rejection of Stevens' proposal comes at a time when the world is consuming more oil than ever and producers are struggling to keep pace. Much of the growth in energy demand is in the emerging economies of Asia; demand is projected to more than double by 2025. U.S. citizens faced gas prices approaching $4 per gallon this past summer, and this winter, oil prices have verged on the $70 per barrel mark.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates domestic oil demand will increase 33 percent during the next 20 years. Demand for natural gas will grow 62 percent and electricity 45 percent. Total petroleum consumption is projected to grow from 20.8 million barrels per day in 2004 to 26.1 million barrels per day in 2025. Meanwhile, domestic production of crude oil has declined from 9.6 million barrels per day to 5.8 million barrels per day since 1970. And the international supply market is unreliable and marked by political turmoil.

So against this backdrop, it's puzzling that some in Congress still are beholden to environmental groups that reflexively oppose development of our most promising domestic energy resources. The U.S. Geological Survey estimates the Coastal Plain could contain up to 17 billion barrels of oil and 34 trillion cubic feet (963 billion m³) of natural gas. At peak production, the 1002 Area could produce about 1 million barrels of oil per day—20 percent of our domestic daily production.

An uncertain future

On Jan. 31, President Bush put forth an ambitious vision in his State of the Union address when he proposed to "replace more than 75 percent of our oil imports from the Middle East by 2025" by investing in new technologies such as ethanol, hydrogen and cleaner-burning coal. The White House predicts the plan would save about 5 million barrels of oil per day by 2025.

Bush's decision to keep silent on ANWR has generated concern in the energy-producing sector, as well as those industries heavily reliant on petroleum-based products. One could reason his omission simply was an effort to let fresh wounds heal. But it could signal a belief that the Senate vote was ANWR's swan song in the 109th Congress. When pressed, the administration says it remains committed to drilling in ANWR. So as long as supply and demand imbalances continue, the issue will not disappear. But with elections this November and wary legislators, ANWR's chances probably are worse than in 2005. Any chance of success will depend on Bush actively becoming involved.

R. Craig Silvertooth is NRCA's director of federal affairs.