As I was saying …

It's October, so Cubs fans, as they must do, start to think about next year. Pitchers and catchers report to spring training in four short months.

The roofing industry has had it better than the Cubs in 2010, but it's been a strange year for both. The roofing industry had some nice spurts, but none of them was really sustained. The Cubs never spurted; they just fizzled.

Roofing contractors are optimists almost by definition. The next good job is always around the corner. One weather event can change the fortunes of an entire year. The flow of work is never predictable; even in a bad economy, some contractors in every market are doing well.

Still, it's difficult to be too optimistic about 2011. Money is just beginning to come back into the system in the form of investments in commercial mortgages, capital spending and business expansion. Credit markets, which have been almost nonexistent for two years, are showing some signs of life again. Still, nonresidential construction is not expected to improve much.

The housing market has improved modestly in 2010 compared with 2009 but is still in historic doldrums. Most gains in the housing industry have been in multifamily structures—not much help for the typical residential roofing contractor.

And the government, especially the federal government, has contributed to the sense of uncertainty we all feel. Our industry, like virtually all U.S. industries, is more regulated than ever and is likely to be more taxed than ever. And barring Congressional action during the next three months, the estate tax will return at a high rate with a low exemption. That will make it even more difficult for some families to keep their businesses going.

So the best roofing contractors are returning to some business basics: watching expenses closely, keeping employees motivated and staying in regular contact with good customers. And they are looking, too, for new market opportunities: increasing service and maintenance work, learning about vegetative and photovoltaic roof systems, and considering diversification strategies.

Those of us who are Cubs fans always believe, one day, October will be good for us. We hope it is for you, too.

Bill Good is NRCA's executive vice president.