As I was saying …

An optimist, said the humorist H.L. Mencken, is one who, upon noticing that roses smell better than cabbages, concludes they also will make better soup.

When we look at the roofing industry's landscape these days, we see a lot more cabbages than roses. And it's hard to be optimistic about any kind of meaningful turnaround. There is little prospect for a short-term rebound in commercial real estate development. With continuing uncertainty about future tax rates, health care costs and energy costs, few business owners are willing to make significant capital investments. The headlines about housing starts report 20 to 30 percent year-over-year increases, but that's from a level that is one-third of what it was just five years ago.

Thankfully, I suppose, we've had our share of heavy rains and hailstorms this year. Studies have shown about 25 percent of roofing work is related to weather events. That's certainly hard to plan for, but it may be the cabbage we look for in the climate change debate.

And the federal government has been spending money like, well, drunken sailors though one letter to the editor published earlier this year in a Wyoming newspaper called that statement an insult to drunken sailors; they eventually run out of money, the writer said.

Meanwhile, professional roofing contractors are doing what they've always done best—finding new markets, working more closely with previous customers, and offering more maintenance and service work. They also are moving away from business models that rely on doing new work for the lowest price. Those models don't work well now and may not for quite some time.

Professional roofing contractors also are paying more attention to selling and marketing; using some basic strategies like direct mail and more sophisticated ones like asking customers for letters of reference and referrals; developing a presence on the Internet; and using new technologies (aerial photography, for instance) to prepare proposals.

So it appears our cabbages these days are found in public work, negotiated private work, and repair and replacement of roof systems on existing single-family homes. Smart contractors will learn to make good soup out of that.

Bill Good is NRCA's executive vice president.