As I was saying …

For the most part, the 21st century has not been kind to the asphalt shingle manufacturing community. The list of challenges the sector faces is daunting. It includes, of course, the subprime lending mess, stagnant condition of the new housing market and unrelenting increases in manufacturing costs, most notably with asphalt.

It was only a few years ago we were talking about the commercial marketplace being in the doldrums while we witnessed housing starts climb to near-record levels of 2.3 million annually. Some experts predict housing starts will dip below 1 million this year. Think about having your business face a 60 percent decline in a primary business line.

The residential roofing marketplace also has seen the emergence of more new products, such as metal shingles and faux slate. On top of that, the capacity for producing tile grew with the abundance of new plants built in the aftermath of the 2005 hurricane season.

Happily, we have a resourceful group of shingle manufacturers in the roofing industry. In a sense they have to be, but many not only are surviving, they have identified new market opportunities.

One of those opportunities is overseas. In China, for example, it is not uncommon to see high-rise concrete buildings with steep-slope asphalt shingle roof systems—the Chinese solution to low-slope roofing material and application problems. In India and China, there is emerging demand for Western-style single-family housing. It's not for everyone, but providing roofs for just 1 percent of the combined populations of those two countries will keep a lot of people busy for a long time.

And another market opportunity has been to make shingles "greener." Some jurisdictions are mandating minimum reflectivity levels for residential roof systems; the shingle community has responded with new colors and new granule technology that allows for greater reflectivity using existing shingle-making technology. Watch for more advances in this area as the green building movement affects more homes.

Roofing is a cyclical industry, and all cycles, unfortunately, have low points. This is one of the worst of them as we are in what appears to be the fourth consecutive year of residential roofing market decline. Like all cycles, this one will change again. Until it does, we should be grateful we have manufacturers who are resilient and understand this century has a long way to go.

Bill Good is NRCA's executive vice president.