As I was saying…

In his wonderful book Outliers: The Story of Success, Malcolm Gladwell argues success is more attributable to opportunities and cultural influences than it is simply to working hard or being smart. Bill Gates, he says, is smart, to be sure, but never would have succeeded had he not had virtually unlimited access to high-end computers as a teenager. And the right time to be born if you were to become a leader in computer technology appears to be 1954 or 1955, making you neither too young nor too old to be part of the technological revolution.

Gladwell also argues—with compelling evidence—that hockey players born in January or February are much more likely to succeed than those born in November or December. Why? Because the age cut-off for junior hockey programs is Dec. 31; children born on Jan. 1 are playing with and against those who may be nearly a full year younger. They are identified as gifted early on and thereby benefit from more practice, better coaching and all sorts of positive reinforcement.

So do Gladwell's conclusions apply to the roofing industry? I think so.

The industry is full of companies that started in the early 1980s tied—either by accident or design—to the emergence of single-ply roofing technology. Some roofing companies, reared on and married to older technologies, resisted change and failed. Others embraced change and succeeded. Still others found a middle ground, never quite deciding whether the change was real.

Similarly, the first decade of the 21st century could turn out to be exactly the right time to be in the roofing industry if, as Gladwell suggests, we recognize the opportunities we have been given and are willing to work hard.

It is difficult to think about new technologies and emerging opportunities in the midst of an economic downturn. But the downturn will pass, and when it does, our industry will be increasingly looked to for expert help with matters pertaining to energy and the environment. The hardest working among us will be positioned to embrace the moment.

Luckily, roofing contractors born in December are at no particular disadvantage compared with those born in January, at least not that I know of. So it's a wide open playing field. Let's all have some fun on it.

Bill Good is NRCA's executive vice president.