As I was saying …

In 1963, Sen. Barry Goldwater paid a visit to President John Kennedy at the White House. Kennedy escorted him to the Oval Office and said: "So you want this f---ing job?"

There are two lessons to be learned from that story. The first is there actually was a time political rivals could have fun with one another (Goldwater and Kennedy planned to travel together during the 1964 campaign to hold debates). The second is, as the writer Gore Vidal said: "Any American who is prepared to run for president should automatically, by definition, be disqualified from ever doing so."

As the country prepares for another change in leadership, we offer a toast to the new president and the new year. We do so with more than a little trepidation, knowing the new year and new president are apt to bring surprises.

Was all the rhetoric about spreading the wealth, renegotiating trade agreements, and creating new and expansive government programs just campaign talk, or will we have to prepare to do battle in Washington, D.C.?

Will the new feeling of international goodwill toward the new administration translate into stronger alliances, or will we face new threats from emboldened enemies?

And will the roofing industry prove to be as resilient as it was in 2008, or will we feel the effects of the struggling housing and financial markets?

It is, of course, impossible to know. But we are encouraged by some initial indications. President-elect Obama is surrounding himself with Washington veterans, most of whom are pragmatists rather than idealists. This suggests, for example, we will be less likely to see big tax increases while the economy struggles. We may even see some attempt at collegiality again.

And it appears the Senate will not be filibuster-proof as we had once feared. The Republicans should wind up with 41 or 42 seats—enough to force negotiation and compromise. As always, gridlock in Washington, as a general rule, is a good thing.

As 2009 unfolds, roofing professionals are bracing for a downturn that didn't quite materialize for them in 2008. Here's to the new year, then, and to the hope we can hang on until a real recovery begins in earnest.

Bill Good is NRCA's executive vice president.