As I was saying …

I recently heard a presentation given by an economic forecaster who began his remarks by reminding the audience that all forecasts are wrong. He proceeded to give an incredibly gloomy outlook for 2008, leaving all of us hoping his assessment applies to his own work.

There is plenty of room for pessimism as we begin 2008. We have an excess inventory of houses that may take another year to deplete. Commercial vacancy rates have been creeping higher, and industrial owners are becoming increasingly cautious. The financial markets are a mess, thanks to what we broadly refer to as the subprime lending crisis—a polite way of saying lenders made too much cheap money available when they should have known better.

And yet when we read beyond the headlines, we realize most key indicators are still sound. Inflation is low by any historical measurement and expected to decline more this year. The economy should continue to add about 100,000 new jobs per month. And the international economy is strong, too, meaning U.S. exporters have new and strong markets to explore. For exporters, a weak dollar is a good thing and probably helps create U.S. jobs.

The roofing industry has always proved to be resilient in softer markets for at least three reasons. First, there is a mostly nonelastic demand for roofing products; if a roof system leaks, its owner is likely to repair or replace it. Second, when new construction slows, owners are more likely to invest in repairs and additions. And third, a majority of roofing work is repair, replacement and maintenance—work that is performed without much regard to broader economic trends.

We have one more important development at work for us, as well. The industry's customers are becoming more aware of the importance of roofing products—roof systems are increasingly being seen as important assets rather than simple building components. This makes it even more imperative for us to explain how roof systems not only shelter structures from the elements but also can save energy and protect the environment.

I suspect 2008 will wind up being remarkably unremarkable. We'll continue to struggle to find qualified workers. Some parts of the country will be robust; others will be sluggish. We'll continue to find innovative new ways to address our most nagging issues while we install roof systems that will last longer and provide more value to our customers. Mostly, I am concerned that forecasts of economic downturns will become self-fulfilling prophecies; the more we talk about slow­downs, the more tempting it is to put off expansion plans.

So here's a toast to the new year and, while we're at it, to forecasters. Most of them could use a drink or two.

Bill Good is NRCA's executive vice president.