As I was saying ...

Despite all the warnings about global warming contributing to a 10-year cycle of hurricanes, we're now told we concluded 2006 with no significant hurricanes because of—you guessed it—global warming. Apparently, the same rise in ocean temperatures that was supposed to have accounted for the 2005 hurricanes also helped create an El Niño effect in the Pacific Ocean, thereby mitigating the effects of warming in the Atlantic Ocean.

So much for messing with (or trying to outguess) Mother Nature. Our industry was seduced by the amount of work hurricanes and other natural disasters created in 2004 and 2005. New plants were built, new employees were hired, new strategic plans were developed—all based on the expectation of more weather-related work. It was our own dose of irrational exuberance.

The smart companies in our industry, we know with the benefit of hindsight, continued to plan for typical business cycles and the possibility of weather-related events rather than the eventuality of weather-related events. They did just fine in 2006 though they may miss some opportunities during the next round of hurricanes if and when they occur. But if companies are really smart—and many are—they have developed contingency plans without betting their futures.

Those plans include dealing with the media in the aftermath of a natural disaster; prioritizing customers who might need emergency help, such as hospitals and nursing homes; arranging for extended lines of credit; ensuring sup­pliers will make products available to them; and familiarizing customers with their con­tingency plans. Business as usual, in uncertain times, requires businesses that are unusually good.

Of course, not all disasters are of the natural variety, and it behooves all roofing contractors to develop contingency plans for weather emergencies, as well as accidents, injuries and all sorts of events beyond their control.

I had a college professor who argued that every question can be answered with one of the following responses: "It all depends" and "You never can tell." When we ask what the roofing industry will be like in 2007, both answers are correct.

There's still plenty of time before the first hurricane of 2007 is expected. And what we know with great certainty is this will be another predictable year, full of surprises.

Bill Good is NRCA's executive vice president.